A team from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur warned that the fourth Covid wave may arrive in mid to late June, just as India was beginning to lift Covid-induced restrictions. The increase, they estimated, would continue for four months, starting around June 22 and ending on October 24.
With only a few days of difference, the IIT team was spot on with their original prediction for the start of Covid-19. The severity of the wave would be decided by the type of variation and the current condition of immunization throughout the country.
Researchers Involved-
The work, led by IIT Kanpur’s Mathematics department’s Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh, was submitted as a pre-print in MedRxiv but has not yet been peer-reviewed. The fourth COVID wave is projected to start around June 22 and last until October 24, according to the research.
New Omicron Variants-
Another recent study found that the next COVID mutation could appear in two ways. They also stated that there is no guarantee that the new variety will be less severe than the previously found ones.
Over the last 24 hours, India documented 10,273 new Covid-19 cases, 20,439 recoveries, and 243 fatalities.
Severity Of The Wave-
To begin with, Omicron is still changing, resulting in Omicron-plus variations that are worse than BA.1 or BA.2. According to Jesse Bloom, an evolutionary virologist at Seattle’s Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, the second possibility is that a new, unrelated type emerges.
The degree of the impact, according to the researchers, will be judged by a range of parameters such as infectiousness, lethality, and so on. Apart from that, they noted that the effect of vaccines – whether first, second, or booster dosage – may have a significant influence on the likelihood of infection, the severity of infection, and other concerns related to the fourth wave.
When will the Wave Hit?
Researchers said- The 4th wave will arrive 936 days from January 30, 2020. “As a result, the fourth wave begins on June 22, 2022, peaks on August 23, 2022, and ends on October 24, 2022,” they claimed, adding, “Moreover, the 99 percent confidence interval for the date, when the curve will reach the peak, is approximately from August 15th, 2022 to August 31, 2022.”
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